Forward looking Z

Onto Z mount and although the Z6 and Z7 are strong introductory products, it appears Nikon have left plenty of room above it.

Nikon have stated that they started with a body size that they felt Nikon users would accept and everything went into that afterwards for the Z6 and Z7. Which means that size was a priority for the introductory models, which makes sense when combined with the moderately fast apertured f/1.8 primes and f/4 kit zoom.

However f/2.8 zooms are on the roadmap beginning 2019 hence the logical assumption that perhaps larger Z bodies may be coming in the near future. The middle range naming scheme for the Z6/7 also leaves room for Z8 and Z9 higher end bodies.

Along with the larger bodies probably comes room for secondary card slots which were size prohibited on the Z6 and Z7 bodies. My personal view is that those that need 2 slots need it and for those that don’t (likely a much larger majority), XQD is the best card format that Nikon could have chosen today.

I also think new made-for-mirrorless larger batteries are coming. To me, the EN-EL15b batteries used in the Z6/Z7 are further indications these were designed as transition or companion cameras to DSLRs.

The AF algorithm on the higher end bodies will probably be co-developed with the D6 as I believe the D6 camera must be able to embody some of the benefits of mirrorless shooting, whilst staying a DSLR or hybrid design whilst the Z8/Z9 bodies and trinity of f/2.8 zooms will complete Nikon’s Tokyo 2020 Olympics lineup. For a working pro, picking up either a D6 or Z8/Z9 must be seamless.

The Z7 EVF has courted praise for its usability although still criticized for some lag during quick pans. By 2019, a new generation of EVF supporting faster refresh rates at higher resolutions should be available which lends itself to faster paced shooting.

Onto the Z lenses and this is really where the excitement should lie. We’re already slowly seeing the whole picture revealed (no puns intended) for the announced three Z lenses of which mostly only the 24-70mm f/4 and 35mm f/1.8 have been out in the wild and the results are very promising. If Nikon reps and their MTF charts are to be believed, the 50mm f/1.8 will be even better.

Early in 2019 we’ll see the release of the 58mm f/0.95 Noct which I’m expecting to showcase the Z-mount and debut some new technology such as their ARNEO coating which will likely supersede the current Nano coating. Although this lens is likely going to be cost prohibitive for most, it should set the tone for subsequent S line lenses.

In addition to these premium bodies and S line lenses, Nikon would surely need to populate a lineup below this to cater to the masses. But with such a busy schedule I’m not sure when the first ‘affordable’ Z body and non-S line will appear.

Forward looking

I think this has been a solid re-entry into mirrorless for Nikon, at least from an existing Nikon DSLR user’s POV.

I think much of the outcry stems from Nikon’s lack of communication about who these first cameras are intended for. It didn’t help that a lot of hype had built up around their teaser campaign so when everyone wants the released product to be for them, someone’s bound to be disappointed.

Looking forward, how can Nikon build on their start in Z mount whilst keeping F mount users from feeling abandoned? After all DSLRs still command a significant portion of overall ILC so a collapse in DSLR segment, even towards Nikon’s own Z mount would be disastrous.

Starting with DSLRs, I think Nikon would be wise to release a DSLR a little more exciting than the D3500 in early 2019 with perhaps one or two lenses that were already in the queue.

A number of models in Nikon’s lineup are starting to look a bit long in the tooth. Whilst still a strong performer, the D750 is an obvious candidate for a refresh.

It’d be an easy one too by raiding the parts bin. Take the Z6 sensor, add the D850 AF and metering modules and put it into a smaller DSLR body. If the Multi-CAM 20K is too much for a theoretical D760, at least use a toned down version but to save on development cost, they should just use the same unit. After all the next generation AF unit’s probably around the corner in a D6 which will probably make its way into a D860 shortly after that. Most of the specs can be a toned down version of the D850 such as a smaller buffer and perhaps a smaller OVF. If IBIS is possible on the F-mount, it’d also be a no-brainer addition after the sunk development cost for the Z bodies.

A strong D760 release will continue to bolster sales of F-mount lenses.

Speaking of lenses, F-mount is still missing a slew of f/1.4E updates to many of the popular focal lengths. Completing the f/1.4E line in 24mm, 35mm, 85mm and 135mm (probably f/1.8E though) would be very welcomed for F-mount users.

Into the telephoto ranges, a 180mm f/2.8E PF?, 200mm f/2E FL, 300mm f/2.8E FL and 600mm f/5.6E PF, all with the latest VR will further enhance the lineup.

With the absence of any macro lenses in the Z roadmap, updates to the F-mount 105mm and 200mm Micro-Nikkors would also be nice although NR is predicting the 60mm to be updated first.

A D6 before the 2020 Olympics is also a given but what form it takes is harder to predict this time around. F-mount is safe since all the exotic telephoto lenses exists in F-mount and its also an unknown how much advantage Z mount offers telephoto designs anyways. So a late 2019 release could be possible along with an updated D500. This time we might even see a pro mirrorless model supplementing sports duties but more on this later. A D860 is also a shoe-in for the Olympic year.

I actually doubt Nikon have the resources to do everything I’ve suggested so it’d be interesting to see what actually transpires for F-mount in the coming years.

Z opinions – the cameras (continued)

There are elements of the Z cameras that make me feel like they may have been rushed to meet announcement deadlines.

The primary thing that feels like work in progress are the ways the AF interface are implemented, software wise. The preliminary hands on reports revealed the interface are more akin to their DSLR LV modes than their primary submirror AF modes, the latter often considered industry leading.

So it seems like the software are largely ported over rather than being rewritten for the new sensor capabilities. Being the primary and only method of AF (a combination of on-sensor PDAF and CDAF), I think the interface needs an overhaul to resemble the mature, finely honed AF interface of DSLRs and hopefully it can be delivered via firmware. I’m hoping EXPEED 6 has the chops to pull it off.

Furthermore, scene and object recognition of which eye-AF is a subset of has moved from the DSLR’s metering sensor with only some 180000 pixels to the imaging sensor itself.

The jury is still out on whether Nikon’s face recognition also takes into account the eye, but my guess is that it does but algorithms have yet to be updated to include the vast amount of extra data now available. So previously the DSLR system had high accuracy but may lack some precision likely due to the relatively low resolution metering sensor, the ability to utilise more resolution data from the main imaging sensor should remedy this.

With enough processing power, the system should be able to recognise smaller and smaller objects and have the ability to eg. reject the eyelashes but accept the pupils when performing something like eye-AF, a much touted feature in the Sony system.

This will be another work in progress area and I expect Nikon’s object recognition to vastly improve with time. Again hopefully it arrives via firmware and that EXPEED 6 has the chops to process all that extra data.

Moving on to battery life. The initial CIPA rated numbers are a bit disappointing but most early reports indicate vastly superior real life usage.

This appears to be the case for many manufacturers so CIPA probably needs to update their testing protocol to better reflect real life but at least the current test is consistent among all manufacturers so the numbers still have merit.

This could be an indication of lack of refinements in power management of the early Z system cameras and/or non-optimised batteries.

The Z cameras both use a variant of the venerable EN-EL15 battery that is used across many DSLRs past and present. This further lends credibility to the premise that these two first release models are targeted as companion cameras to the DSLR systems. But I think moving forward, there will be specifically designed for mirrorless batteries, like the ironically named Sony Z-batteries.

Looking at the lens roadmap which includes the trio of f2.8 pro zooms before 2020!and how I see who the Z6 and Z7 targets, it’s at least clear to me that higher end Z cameras are just around the corner.

The naming scheme also gives us a clue that the current release are actually mid end offerings despite the price of the Z7. My feeling is that Nikon has deliberately made the price of entry for their 45MP sensor high as it is something of a halo feature in their current camera lineup.

So we could be discussing a Z8 and Z9 this time next year 🙂

Z opinions – the cameras

Wow, a lot of development in the mirrorless space and Photokina’s shaping up to be the most exciting in years.

But before we get ahead of ourselves. Lets discuss the announced Z cameras first 🙂

At launch we have two models with identical bodies and control layout. What separates the Z7 and Z6 is the sensor and some associated attributes now tied to the sensor because they are mirrorless cameras, such as the AF system.

The Z7 with around 45MP will be released first and has been doing the bulk of the preproduction product tours. The Z6 will be released two months later in November.

I think the biggest failure so far in the Z launch has been the lack of communication about who the new Z bodies are targeting. And that has every man and his dog trying to fit the camera specs for their own use in a free for all. And it is only made worse by the pent up demand for a Nikon mirrorless.

Of course in reality it is quite impossible for any one or two models to satisfy an entire market, especially when both bodies are identical. So I’ll take a stab at who these two models are really targeting.

As part of the post announcement interviews, it was revealed Nikon started with a body size that Nikon thought their users would accept and everything else went into it afterwards.

From this it would seem that the form factor was an important consideration from the outset. The Z6 and Z7 are the smallest Nikon FX cameras to date but they have retained much of the grip design as well as the Nikon DSLR user interface (UI).

Both command/sub-command dials are present but the rear main dial moves to a position reminiscent of many exposure compensation dials from other models including the defunct failed to launch Nikon DL compacts. This maintains the button + scroll DSLR UI for the most important shooting controls.

A dedicated AF joystick has been added consistent with higher end Nikon DSLR offerings.

The pricing also puts the two models into at least the enthusiasts category with the Z7 coming in at over the list price of a D850.

So these are higher end products, certainly not entry level stuff designed to appeal to the mass consumers.

However a source of controversy has engulfed the blogosphere over the decision to only include a single XQD card slot. This makes the simple process of data redundancy an issue and appear to have raised the ire of many, particularly professionals shooting non-repeatable events. It’s not that data redundancy is not possible but that it involves means other than just the simple task of duplicating images shot onto two cards.

For those who might not understand why this might be important for a certain segment of photography, duplicate images onto separate cards protect data already shot in the event of card failure. Whilst backup equipment ensures they can continue to shoot in the event of equipment failure.

So this might be a poorer choice for event, especially wedding photographers as well as amateurs embarking on once in a lifetime photo expeditions.

However the choice of XQD cards which have proven to be extremely reliable gives some reassurance to the issue of card failures as well as ensuring very good read/write performance.

So the simple answer is if you absolutely need redundancy, this camera won’t be the best choice as you’d need to rely on other methods to do so, wirelessly or otherwise.

Touching back on the issue of size. The first trio of lenses include an f/4 zoom and two f/1.8 primes which further reinforces the message of reasonable size.

Furthermore, the FTZ adapter was prominently featured in the announcement. This all lead me to believe the first two models are targeted primarily as companion cameras to existing enthusiast Nikon DSLR users.

One stat I haven’t seen is how long it takes a full buffer to clear on an XQD card because both Z cameras have comparatively poor memory buffers. The choice of a single high performance card (a second slower one will hamper write speed if used together) may actually ensure good usability in real life situations, other than sports and wildlife burst shooting.

IMO this buffer ‘issue’ on even the more expensive Z7 further reinforces their primarily companion status rather than all out standalone. Of course nothing stops anyone from doing a full switch, especially if the released three lenses are exactly what you want but with a new and immature lens lineup I think their design objectives for the Z6 and Z7 are mostly logical.

I also think it addresses the ‘samplers’ who have ventured into other brand mirrorless systems but have retained a footing within the Nikon camp rather than make the full switch.

FF Speculations

Just indulging in some hypotheticals.

The FF Panasonic rumour that just broke came as a surprise to many people including myself. So it means we’ll soon have five players in the FF mirrorless space.

Granted there will be a gradual shift in volume from DSLRs to mirrorless, that’s still beginning to look like a crowded space.

Panasonic is also one of the two main players in the m43 mount along with Olympus. There’s rumours that Olympus will also be releasing a new model that sits above their current E-M1.2 although rumours suggests it will be for m43.

But it all sounds too coincidental so let’s for a moment speculate that Olympus and Panasonic are joining forces again. Could they reinvent the m43 mount for a larger sensor size?

Why not? The communication protocols are all electronic so a new mount will only differ in size.

But could there be a better solution. Panasonic have long been a technology partner with Leica and a perfectly good L-mount exists for a FF sensor format. Leica could benefit from an income stream licensing this mount while Panasonic benefit with the prestige of the brand as well as existing high end lenses. Panasonic could concentrate on video centric cameras leaving Leica to their high end niche.

Another option exists but a little far fetched. Panasonic have been developing an organic sensor with Fujifilm for what seems like the longest time. So at least a relationship exists and Fujifilm has a GX Mount for the small medium format sensor. There’s rumours Panasonic will again feature a multi aspect ratio sensor which essentially means the sensor used is oversized for the requisite image circle enabling cropping to various aspect ratios whilst maintaining the image diagonal corresponding to the diameter of the requisite image circle. This will require a larger than FF sensor unless the requisite image circle is set smaller than the current FF format so a GX mount might make sense.

Coming back to Olympus, what they appear to do best is their high quality lenses and small cameras. They also appear to be stagnant in ILC volume, even dropping a little and m43 as a whole is starting to reach a design limit requiring very large designs for f1.2 lenses. The potential for growth might lie in a move upscale in format but maintains their small system niche.

An alliance of the smaller players would bring potentially four similar capabilities players and at an average of 25% share per mount and this could be quite sustainable in the long run.

Photokina this year’s gonna be fun.

Z opinions – the lenses

Following on from the big deal made of the new Z mount, you’d expect big things from the Z lenses.

At first glance it appears Nikon have gone quite conservative with their initial three offerings. Two moderately fast primes and a slower but constant f/4 normal zoom which will be the new kit lens.

Looking further the lens’ outer appearance also seem a little bland, certainly not Zeiss pretty and reminding me a little of the recent Tamrons. Appearances have never bothered me but nevertheless stylish gear does appeal to a certain segment. Certain it doesn’t harm any sales.

Then looking at the specs, things start to get interesting. They are all part of a new S-line that are suppose to pass a new standard of performance, something akin to the gold ring standard on F-mount but I believe the bar is higher.

They have metal bodies and are all weather sealed, matching the newly released Z cameras. Excellent.

They all use new stepping motors that are fast and silent for both stills and video use. Excellent.

Next have a look at the MTFs. I’ll save myself the trouble and point you to a Nikonrumors post with a nice selection of comparison MTFs.

In short, they look very good and although theoretical and subjected to individual variations, actual performance shouldn’t deviate too far.

Resolution are very high extending well into the corners, particularly on the 50 f/1.8 S and if the promise of Z mount holds true, optical aberrations should be well controlled as well as vignetting. On some of the available web samples, bokeh appears smooth continuing some of the recent f/1.4E F-mount lenses’ trend.

Something tells me Nikon has gained tremendous experience with their OPTIA measuring device from each of their recent lens releases, which have all been quite stellar.

The lenses however are not small, nor big but are priced higher than their F-mount counterparts for the primes. But given the expected performance, the argument has to be made these are intended for a different market. I’m personally looking forward to the 14-30 f/4 as a great travel wide option.

Looking ahead, the lens roadmap is interesting firstly because Nikon doesn’t do roadmaps.

Secondly they are all S-line with the trio of f/2.8 zooms set to appear in the next two years.

The flagship 58mm f/0.95 Noct is set to appear next year, surprisingly being only the starting point of the series it seems. It’ll be very interesting what technology it’ll debut but already it’s been disclosed a new ARNEO coating will be used which supersedes the current Nano (N) coatings already being used in the best F-mount lenses as well as the released three S-line lenses.

My bet is the future f/2.8 trio and f/1.2 prime lines will also incorporate ARNEO coatings. I also think f/1.4 primes will be skipped in favour of f/1.2’s as a point of differentiation to F-mount.

Personally I think the lineup should do fine as long as each lens becomes essentially best in class or at least equal to. It gives people good reasons to wait, rather than jump ship and it may take another generation of the competition’s lenses to reach performance parity by which time your lineup should have been well fleshed out.

So there are big things coming to the Z lens lineup which leads me to believe pro level Z cameras are just around the corner.

To be continued…

Nikon Z opinions

It’s been a week now since the announcement of Nikon’s new Z mount system. There were a lot of information to digest so I thought it would be wise to let it all sink in before offering an opinion. It often takes a few days before some of the details get fleshed out and even now, many questions still remain unanswered until the final production models make it into the wild.

I’ll probably separate this into a few posts for neatness sake.

Z Mount

The most significant news last Thursday was the official release of the new Z mount. It was already confirmed in the development announcement but we now get a name (Z) as well as the official dimensions.

  • 16mm flange focal distance
  • 55mm inner mount diameter

During the hour long live announcement presentation from Tokyo, they made a big deal about the new mount that is suppose to take them into the next 100 years and they have followed it up with more marketing videos posted on their youtube channel.

So basically it’s big and it’s very close to the sensor. What all this means is a larger physical envelope for lens designers to work in removing many of the limitations of the F-mount. Already Nikon has announced the development of a 58mm f/0.95 lens that we have to assume we’re essentially impossible on the F-mount and in an interview with Imaging Resources, one of the Nikon representatives stated “their goal was actually more ambitious than that, and that the 58/0.95 lens was just a current point.”

Some of the stated advantages that this new mount dimension leads to include lens center resolution, corner sharpness, vignetting, reduced optical aberrations and improved AF coverage.

So this bodes well for lenses for this system.

The obvious downside is the system is new so it’ll take time for the lens lineup to populate.

Nikon has stated it will be a proprietary system but it’s interesting to hear they expect third parties to reverse engineer the mount protocols, appearing ambivalent to the practice.

Another question is whether the Z mount is intended for any other sensor format other than FX. The large mount diameter may seem overkill for a DX systems but we have seen lenses will barrels smaller than the mount eg. some m43 lenses such as the Olympus 45mm f/1.8 and 12mm f/2 so DX Z lenses needn’t be unnecessarily large in its girth.

Mount Adapter FTZ

So whilst Z mount clearly represents the future, Nikon have been careful to convey the message that the F mount legacy is important to them. So on the forefront of the system announcements is the inclusion of an F-mount adapter.

To my great relief there were no translucent mirrors inside the adapter meaning AF will be done via the sensor based AF system. This removes one source of inaccuracy compared to DSLR AF systems that uses an alternative optical path to a separate AF module.

Secondly, the aperture arm ensures that at least the G lenses should be fully functional including AF capabilities.

D lenses, at least the non AF-S versions which are the majority are out of luck with respect to autofocus.

Early reports, notably from Bjorn Rorslett appear to suggest an excellent fit provided by the large Z mount base and AF is remarkably good even in version 1.

I’d expect AF performance to continue to improve as AF algorithms improve, provided it is passed on in firmware upgrades.

An interesting point coming out of the recent Imaging Resources interview is that even though the Z system uses a combination of on-sensor PDAF and CDAF protocols, when F-mount lenses are used via FTZ, the system omits the CDAF step. Technically this means lens tolerance can still cause minor AF inaccuracies but I’m betting consistency will still be much improved. It’s not clear whether this also affects AF-P F-mount lenses that uses stepping motors.